Back-to-back 10-6 weeks puts us 20-12 for the year in the @andyslater pick ‘em challenge and going 4-1 in the big money pick 5 challenge. We moved up to 17th from 49th in the Slater standings and are tied 16th in the pick 5 challenge at 7-3. This week’s games features a lot of double-digit favorites which, historically have not fared well against the spread. Typically, I pick the dogs in those instances, but there are conflicting trends in the model. I would advise to avoid the double-digit games. What troubles me this week is backing a lot of weak teams. This week’s breakdown: xx dogs and xx home teams.
49ERS -10.5 vs. Giants Conflicting trends here. Double-digit dog but an East coast away team on the West coast on short week prep. I have to pick it, but you don’t. Avoid this one.
COMMANDERS +6.5 vs. Bills Tough call. Not convinced the Bills have found their stride yet. Win no cover scenario.
PATS -2.5 @ NY Jets Coin flip. I’m basically going with the theory that Coach B isn’t going 0-3.
VIKINGS +0.5 vs. Chargers I’m taking the Vikings coaches over the Chargers coaches. That simple.
DOLPHINS -6.5 vs. Broncos Conflicting trends for my model. I tend to favor the winless underdog vs. the undefeated favorite; however, the Payton/Wilson experiment seems to be going nowhere. Broncos wilt in the 4th quarter. Fins 28 Broncos 21.
JAGS -9.5 vs. Texans I continue to bet against CJ Stroud until he proves me otherwise.
PACKERS -2.5 vs Saints Carr looked like a train wreck on Monday night. First home game for Packers.
LIONS -3.5 vs. Falcons. Falcons undefeated? I think they’re a fraud. Fighting Campbells for the win.
TITANS +3.5 vs. Browns. Even game. I’ll take the points in this scenario.
RAVENS -8.5 vs. Colts. Not a fan of big favorites but Colts starting QB is a question mark as I pick this game.
SEAHAWKS -5.5 vs. Panthers. Picking against the rookie QB. *Young is out. Dalton will start.
CHIEFS -12.5 vs. Bears. This goes against my normal theory. Plus, Mahomes is only 33% as a 10+ point fave; however, the Bears are a mess. Fields complaining. Coaches resigning. I can’t back that.
CARDS +12.5 vs. Cowboys. My normal play of taking a double-digit dog at home. Caution this will basically be a home game for Dallas. There will be more Cowboy fans at the game than Cards fans.
RAIDERS -1.5 vs. Steelers. First home game for Vegas and it’s at night. Good enough for me.
BUCS +5.5 vs. Eagles. Contrarian pick. I know it doesn’t make any sense. These are the games I like.
BENGALS -2.5 vs. Rams. Mystery here as we don’t know the status of Burrow. Am counting on the Bengals not going 0-3.
PICK 5
TITANS +3.5 @ Browns
LIONS -3.5 vs. Falcons
PACKERS -1.5 vs. Saints
RAIDERS -1.5 vs. Steelers
BENGALS -1.5 vs. Rams
BONUS NCAAF picks:
FSU -2.5 @ Clemson
BUFFS +21 @ Oregon
IRISH +2.5 vs. OSU
