Well folks, good news and bad news for week 6. The good news? 9-6 for the week overall in the @andyslater pick ‘em challenge and 50-43 (53.8%) which moved me up 12 spots to 81st. The bad news is that I went 2-3 in the bigger money pick 5 challenge and lost a game on the leader. 17-13 (56.7%) overall and now five games back. There are an increasing number of teams, coaches, and QBs I can’t bet on; however, the problem is that a lot of games this week pits those on both sides (Raiders vs. Bears). On the surface, that makes it a tough week for me.
BUCS -2.5 vs. Falcons. Example #1 of two teams I can’t bet on. I don’t trust either Baker Mayfield or Desmond Ridder. The only reason I’m picking the Bucs is the line is only -2.5. Avoid at all costs.
COMMANDERS -1.5 @ Giants. Example #2. Another QB matchup that I don’t like either. I don’t like Commanders’ head coach Ron Rivera, and Giants’ Head Coach Brian Daboll looks lost. Looking at trends, the Giants are 0-7 ATS since December 2021 when they scored fewer than 13 points in the prior game. I’ll take it.
PATS +8.5 vs. Bills. Pats QB Mac Jones is on the do not touch list so I should know better. This game should be 45-10, but history says take the home divisional underdog by more than 7.
BROWNS -2.5 @ Colts. Jim Schwartz’s Browns defense is formidable. They are #1 in the league in yards allowed per game, #1 in passing yards allowed per game, #3 in rushing yards allowed per game, and #5 in scoring defense. Those stats are good enough for me, plus DeShaun Watson has a chance to play.
BEARS +3.5 vs Raiders. Example #3. The Raiders are starting Brian Hoyer at QB and I Head Coach Josh McDaniels is on the ‘do not touch’ list. Yet, the Bears are starting somebody named Tyson Bagent from well-known Shepard College, and I think Head Coach Matt Eberfuss is over his head. So, once again, I revert to history for this pick. The Raiders are 0-9 ATS since 11/29/20 as a road favorite and have lost the last 4 outright.
LIONS +3.5 @ Ravens. I’m always looking for good teams who are underdogs by more than 3 points. Not only that but more importantly, the Lions are 11-0 ATS since December 2018, coming off a win by more than one score. I don’t like Todd Monkin’s offensive scheme for Lamar Jackson. He is not a dropback passer. All signs point to Detroit.
STEELERS +3.5 @ Rams. The Steelers are on the no-pick. The Rams aren’t there yet. I keep thinking Steelers’ QB Kenny Pickett will wake up from his nightmare and get back to his capabilities. The Rams are so up and down I usually take them to do the opposite from last week. Last week, they covered. Hopefully, this week, they don’t.
CARDINALS +7.5 @ Seahawks. Divisional game with an underdog of more than 7, albeit on the road. I took this logic last week with the Cardinals vs. the 49ers and got burned. I’ll try it once more. I know, fool me twice, shame on me.
PACKERS -1.5 @ Broncos. Denver was the first team on the no-bet list after I watched them quit against the Fins. I don’t know what Sean Payton is doing, and I’m not sure he does either. I don’t like Packers’ QB Jordan Love, but I simply cannot take the Denver Trainwrecks.
CHIEFS -5.5 vs. Chargers. The Chiefs are a lousy home favorite. The Chargers’ offense is 7th in the league in scoring and 8th in yards per game. BUT their defense is a lousy 31st out of 32 teams in yards allowed per game and 23rd in points allowed. One would think Patrick Mahomes could exploit that, right?
VIKINGS +7.5 vs. 49ers. This line has gone from 6.5 to 7.5 and back again. I like the 49ers at 6.5, but this pool has them as a 7.5-point favorite. As we all know, Kirk Cousins primetime record is abysmal, and I surely do not expect a Vikings win. 49er WR Deebo Samuel is out, which is a big loss for them. Maybe Kirk can give us a backdoor cover.
EAGLES -2.5 vs. FINS. Earlier this week, I gave my detailed preview of this game. Basically, the Eagles have just about every categorical advantage except for passing offense. I think the Fins get a quality win vs. a quality opponent but it won’t be here. It will be in Germany vs. the Chiefs. Eagles by a FG. 27-24.
