The 5-1 Miami Dolphins are headed into a high-stakes clash versus the 5-1 Philadelphia Eagles on the road Sunday night in week 7. Miami continued their year-long offensive weapons display last week vs the Carolina Panthers, winning 42-21, whereas the Eagles suffered their first loss of the season against the NY Jets, 20-14. There are many strengths vs weaknesses as well as strengths vs strengths in this matchup, which should make this game quite entertaining. The Eagle’s strength is the run game, which the Dolphins have struggled many times this season at stopping. will Fangio and the squad game plan this more soundly? Last time on the road going against a top-ten team, Miami struggled mightily and lost by 28. Is this the game that proves that they deserve to be ranked as high as they are?
Below are my fantasy projections for the game
Quarterback:
Tua Tagovailoa has amassed over 1,800 yards to go with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions through 6 games, averaging just north of 300 yards per game. He has played extremely well, and outside of only absorbing six sacks (averaging 1 per game), if center Connor Williams missed this game, it will be tough sledding to keep him upright and not hurried against the relentless defensive line of the Eagles, led by rookie Jalen Carter who looks to be returning from injury. Mix in the forecast of ~45 degrees with wind bursts of 36 mph, both QBs are going to have their hands full. As with every game, Tua’s final stat line will be predicated on how well the offensive line plays.
Prediction: 280 yards passing, two touchdowns, one interception
Wide Receiver:
Tyreek Hill is playing with his hair on fire during the Dolphin’s fast start, grabbing 814 yards (which is the record to start the season’s first 6 games). Defensive coordinator Sean Desai will surely be planning to double team in attempts to take Hill’s deep threat ability from triggering, making the rest of the receivers to pick up the slack. We all have seen what Jaylen Waddle can do, at times showing the explosiveness and ability that puts him in the top ten of receivers of the NFL. He has yet to be fully unleashed this year and has modest numbers to this point. He is going to need to break back out in a big way if Miami wants to score against this talented defensive unit. Braxton Berrios has been solid, and it looks like Chase Claypool is ready to go after sitting and learning the playbook for the past couple of weeks. Talent in this group goes without saying, and they are going to need all of it this week.
Predictions: Tyreek Hill – 6 receptions, 115 yards, one touchdown. Jaylen Waddle – 8 receptions, 105 yards, one touchdown. Braxton Berrios – 4 receptions, 48 yards. Chase Claypool – 3 receptions, 40 yards.
Running Back:
If the passing game is #1 for Miami, the rushing attack is 1A. Mostert, Achane, and at times, Brooks have kept the yards churning. Last week was the first without stud rookie; Achane and Raheem Mostert did not miss a beat, scoring 3 combined touchdowns for a total of 132 yards, and continues to play well below his age. You know the Eagles will look to pound the ball down Miami’s throat, but the 2023 Miami Dolphins have a well-balanced attack that can hang with almost any NFL team. If the wind and weather play a part which is likely this week, the running game will be more important than in weeks past. With Chris Brooks on the IR, Miami is getting Jeff Wilson back for this game, which helps strengthen the back end. Look for Miami to open up the passing lanes by running the ball consistently.
Predictions: Raheem Mostert – 95 rushing yards, one touchdown, two receptions for 35 yards. Jeff Wilson – 45 rushing yards, one touchdown. Salvon Ahmed – 28 rushing yards.
Tight End:
Durham Smythe has had a solid start to the season, generally locked in for four receptions and between 40-50 yards receiving. He was targeted once last week and did not register a catch. Look for him to play the safety valve this week for Tua in the face of pressure from the defense, mixing in chips and in-line blocking. Julian Hill has been seeing added playing time as of late, contributing in the running game and showing a strong blocking foundation, which looks to be improving weekly. The tight end room will continue to be the fantasy weak point of this offensive highlight team.
Predictions: Durham Smythe – 3 receptions for 39 yards. Julian Hill – 1 reception for 8 yards.
Defense/Special Teams:
More than likely, this is where the game may be won (or lost). The Miami defensive line is going to have their hands full with the Eagle’s rushing attack this week. Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler have both played extremely well this season, and they will need to bring that up a notch higher this week. Raekwon Davis is going to need to utilize his size and plug the gaps for the linebacking unit to clean up whatever gets through. After that, it does not get much easier with AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert leading the receiving core. At the moment, Xavien Howard is listed as questionable for this game and may possibly become a game-time decision. Reinforcements are slowly coming back; Nik Needham looks to return to this game, and Jalen Ramsey opened his 21-day window by practicing this past week (although he does not seem to be returning until the Kansas City game at the earliest). AJ Brown can take over a game at almost any time, so this would be challenging, even at full health. Miami is going to need to try to take him out of the game as best they can. Getting pressure on Jalen Hurts will be a necessity. Andrew Van Ginkel and Jaelon Phillips are going to need to wreak havoc as well as steadily improving Bradley Chubb. They just cannot let Hurts sit back in a clean pocket with time to throw.
Jason Sanders has only attempted seven field goals to this point, making 5. With the expected wind in the forecast, there will be a point in the game where he needs to lock it in and get it through the uprights.
Jake Bailey, who, due to the offensive prowess of this team, has not truly been relied on terribly much is averaging a respectable 45.1 yards per punt. Field position will be one of the keys of the game.
Braxton Berrios, a season kickoff/punt returner, has not had many opportunities to show what he can bring to the return game. He is averaging 9.5 yards per punt return. Again, field position will be key here. Will he break one this game?
Predictions: Defense – 310 yards and three touchdowns allowed. 4 sacks and one interception.
This game has all the makings for either a high-scoring 42-38 type score or a wind/defense-induced low-scoring affair of 21-17. I’d go in between and go with the underdog, Miami Dolphins, to pull off their first, tough road win of 2023, 31-27.
