The Miami Dolphins are going to have to make a lot of tough decisions in the next month or two. They are projected to be $50 million over the salary cap and are going to have to find ways to get under the cap. They also have some big decisions to make with their own free agents. None bigger than defensive tackle Christian Wilkins. 

The Dolphins tried to negotiate a long-term contract last summer but were unable to come to terms with him. One of the sticking points was money because the Dolphins didn’t want to pay premium dollars for a defensive tackle that doesn’t rush the passer well. Wilkins bet on himself and had a career year with nine sacks. He has also seen other defensive tackles from his draft class, Quinnen Williams, Dexter Lawrence, Jeffery Simmons, and Ed Oliver, all get contract extensions. Naturally, Wilkins wants to get paid as he should, but will it be with the Dolphins? 

The Dolphins, the last couple of years, have been going all in trading draft picks and paying big contracts to Xavien Howard, Tyreek Hills, Terron Armstead, and inheriting Jalen Ramsey’s contract, but Wilkins, like other young players the Dolphins drafted in recent years, are due new contracts and the bill is due. The problem is the Dolphins are heading into potentially tough years with the salary cap, and they won’t be able to keep everyone, and that starts this year. 

The Dolphins can negotiate a new multi-year contract, but the question is how much Wilkins is going to be looking for and how much are the Dolphins willing to pay? It’s going to be most likely in the $20 million dollar range. The Dolphins could make it work, but it could mean they have to cut ties with more players and potentially not be able to sign other players to new contracts with the cap situation in the next couple of years. Yes, they would have kept one of their best players, but at what cost? 

The Dolphins could let Wilkins test the market, but likely, he would be signed within the first few days of free agency, and the Dolphins wouldn’t get anything in return. Yes, they could get a compensatory pick for free agent losses next year and perhaps a 3rd round pick, but that formula is so complicated, and there’s no guarantee they would get one that high.  

The Dolphins could slap the franchise tag on him and guarantee him one year of over $23 million, but that would lead to a holdout and him probably not reporting until the season started. 

One idea the Dolphins could do is franchise him and then possibly trade him to get the best value for him. That is a long-shot scenario, but not impossible. With the NFL having the Senior Bowl and the Scouting Combines, the general managers and executives are all scouting, and teams do backchannel communication on certain players and agents. It’s common, actually, and it’s possible you could find a team that is interested. People will say teams don’t want to take on that salary, and that’s true, but teams can negotiate a new contract and lower the cap hit. There will be teams with money to spend, but would they want to deal with the draft picks too? That’s another question. 

The Dolphins are at the stage where they will have to let players go and even trade them for the best deal to get something in return. The Kansas City Chiefs were in that position two years ago with Hill. They had him under contract but were entering the last year of the deal, and the wide receiver market was inflating. The Chiefs could have paid him, but they were going to be up against the cap, and they needed to acquire more draft picks to develop talent, so they made a deal with the Dolphins for five picks. The Chiefs used those picks to remake their defense, and it’s become one of the better defenses in the league. Yes, they dropped off on offense, but they are still contending with the remake even at the cost of trading one of their best players and are on the verge of their 3rd Super Bowl title in 5 years. 

I know the Dolphins aren’t the Chiefs, but they also haven’t had postseason success despite going to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. They must shake up the roster, and that could mean cutting ties with Wilkins and others. I think the Dolphins will let him walk. It’s not the ideal situation, but this time of year reminds everyone the NFL is a business, and teams let players walk in free agency, cut or trade them.Â