The NFL Draft is an inexact science, and no general manager is expected to have a perfect batting average and to hit on all of their draft picks. With that said, Chris Grier and the Dolphins front office must hit on both early-round draft picks in the 2024 Draft and be risk-averse.

When a team is rebuilding or already at an elite level, you can play around in the draft, even in the early rounds. Take a flyer on a guy who may have a few red flags, trade back, and try to get more picks while knowing that a player who is more of a sure thing may not be there by trading back—stuff like that.

The Dolphins cannot do such things with this year’s upcoming draft.

With the losses of Robert Hunt and Christian Wilkins this offseason, the Dolphins roster as of today, March 30th, is not as good on paper as Miami’s roster in 2022 and 2023. Jevon Holland’s contract expires after this upcoming season, and Jaylen Waddle and Jaelan Phillips’s contracts expire the following year, so there is a good chance Miami may lose more key components that are the core of this team in the next 24 months.

That said, the Dolphins need to add two solid players with picks #21 and #55 this year to help fill the void of Hunt and Wilkins. They also need to bring in two foundational pieces who can be core players a year or two from now should some combination of Holland, Phillips, and Waddle leave.

Chris Grier cannot get cute.

Chris Grier cannot take a big risk on a player with multiple red flags.

Chris Grier has to be very careful when trading down to acquire more picks because if he trades down too far, he may trade himself out of getting a day-one contributor and a very good player who is more of a sure thing.

In the past two seasons, Miami did not have many draft choices—only four in 2022 and four in 2023. There were no first-round picks and only one second-round pick combined in both years, and the second-round pick (Cam Smith) didn’t even play.

The Dolphins roster is top-heavy with many “superstars” but lacks depth at almost every position. It lacks depth because the Dolphins have punted on the past two drafts, and any injury has been crippling to them. They need to fix this trend.

The draft is your friend! It’s fun to go on social media and yell, “F THEM PICKS.” And if it wins you a Super Bowl (like the Rams), great. But when it doesn’t work (and it has failed in Miami), then you need to change course.

Now, Miami not having a 3rd or 4th round pick this year isn’t ideal, but at least they have picks in Rounds one and two, so there is hope they can add some top talent to the mix because it is sorely needed.

Whether you like what Miami has done this offseason or not, one thing, as I said, is clear: the roster isn’t as good as it was last year. And last season, Miami was the 6th seed in the AFC. For Miami to get back to that point (or hopefully be better than that), they need players at picks #21 and #55 who can come in ASAP and contribute.

They can’t have an Austin Jackson, who took until year four to develop, a Noah Igbinoghene, who was a total project and ended up being a bust, or a Cam Smith, whom Miami gave a redshirt year to and gave them nothing on the field as a rookie.

The Dolphins must select players who are more of a polished product, mature enough as rookies, and have the work ethic beyond their years to play significant roles as rookies.

Miami can go many ways in this upcoming draft. They have glaring needs on the offensive and defensive lines and at wide receiver. I fully expect two of those three positions to be addressed in rounds one and two. I do not believe Miami can go BPA (Best Player Available), as not addressing a need will severely hamper the Dolphins 2024 season.

I’m not a scout and don’t pretend to play one on TV or a podcast. I have opinions and feel Miami should address the defensive line in Round 1 as I feel that is the biggest weak point on this team, not to mention there are still free-agent offensive linemen out there Miami can sign. There are no free-agent defensive linemen out there that would make an impact.

We can debate the names of Byron Murphy II, Jared Verse, or Jer’Zhan Newton and who would be a great fit for Miami (among others) with the defensive players.

If it is the offensive line, the names we know who may be in play are Graham Barton, JC Latham, or Jackson Powers-Johnson.

Whoever the names are, at whatever positions, Grier and company need to really hit a home run. Ok, I will settle for a triple or a double. All joking aside, this draft and those two picks in Rounds 1 and 2 really are pivotal for Miami both in the short term of 2024 and being in the mix for a playoff spot in a tough AFC and also long-term as they need more foundational pieces to replace the ones they lost and the ones they may be losing soon.

This is not the year to roll the dice in the draft, and being risk-averse is the best approach to take.

Bucky Brooks Mock Draft 3.0 has Miami Selecting…

Bucky Brooks Mock Draft 3.0 has Miami Selecting…