Christian Wilkins is the name on the lips of every Dolphins fan right now, and fans are having sleepless nights because they think Wilkins has played his final game for the Miami Dolphins.
The latest report from Ian Rapoport on Monday states the Dolphins will not use the franchise tag on Wilkins and will let him become an unrestricted free agent. Since they have tried for two years to work out a long-term deal with Wilkins, it is expected Wilkins will get the money he wants from another team and will leave South Florida.
This has Dolphins fans in their emotions, bringing out a lot of finger-pointing and playing the blame game about how and why Miami would let Wilkins walk.
Everyone must take a deep breath and step back to see the big picture.
Am I happy that Wilkins probably is gone? No! I am unhappy, but there are many moving parts right now.
The Dolphins have players like Jaylen Waddle, Jevon Holland, and Jaelan Phillips, who will need long-term deals in the next year or so. Holland first because he doesn’t have a fifth-year option that can be picked up.
Then you have to factor in Tua, who still hasn’t signed his long-term deal at the time of this article, and Miami has to secure his future.
Oh yeah, guys like Andrew Van Ginkel, Robert Hunt, and Raekwon Davis are free to walk and sign with a new team about a week from today.
As I have stated on many podcasts, if teams could keep everyone, they would. But they can’t. Teams have to make tough decisions, and some guys will leave.
Right now, with Miami up against it with the salary cap, Chris Grier is facing a difficult decision. Give Wilkins north of $22+ million a year to keep him, knowing in the next two seasons that may mean Jaylen Waddle and Jevon Holland will then walk as free agents. Or, let Wilkins walk now and see if you can secure long-term deals with guys like Holland and Waddle with the money you would have used to keep Wilkins.
Or maybe you let Wilkins walk now, pay to keep Robert Hunt and Andrew Van Ginkel in the short term, and know you will be in a better salary cap situation next year and at that time, in a decent place cap-wise to secure Holland and Waddle then and ink them to long-term deals.
I know it is difficult to watch a team captain, a guy who has done everything the right way, in Christian Wilkins, walk out the door, and at best, you will get back a 3rd round compensatory pick in the 2025 draft for him. But, also think of it this way: Miami is in a situation they haven’t been in before, or at least in recent times. They have too many good players and can’t afford to keep them all.
As I have stated numerous times, one thing we know about Chris Grier is that he loves players at the premium positions (QB, OT, CB, Edge, WR). Wilkins doesn’t play one of those positions, but guys like Waddle, Tua, and Phillips do, and he may want to tie up a significant portion of the salary cap on guys in those positions, not a Christian Wilkins.
Plus, Grier secured Zach Sieler, who is just as good as Wilkins for half of what Wilkins is looking for. He may be thinking; I can find another Zach Sieler type as a free agent at the same price I paid Zach, who will give the team close to similar production as Wilkins.
And this past season Wilkins had his most productive season from a sack perspective under Vic Fangio, well Fangio is gone who is to say he will have the same success moving forward in a new defensive system?
Long story short, there are layers to this.
I know its hurts to see Wilkins leave (if he does end up leaving that hasn’t even been determined yet, but it is looking that way) and it will be more painful if he ends up with the Patriots or Jets.
But this situation is where the general manager, who is paid a boatload of money, has to play chess, not checkers. He has to think about the big picture and the ramifications if he does have Wilkins tie up a large portion of Miami’s salary cap.
So, I don’t want to jump down Chris Grier’s back at this moment in time, I want to see if he is playing a long game here where if he lets Wilkins walk but is able to get other key players on this roster locked into new long-term deals. If so, then this trade-off will make sense, and this decision to let Wilkins walk will be understandable.
If that is not the case, then it will be difficult to defend Chris Grier and his decision here.
Salary cap mess is Greer’s fault. Just hope he doesn’t sign Tua to a bloated contract. Tua can’t move, has a weak arm and is injury prone. How good would Tua be without a good running game and without Hill and Waddle. Wilkins deserves the $, not Tua.