Well, it was another good news, bad news week. 8-6 in the @andyslater pick ‘em challenge pool but only 2-3 in the pick 5 challenge. I moved up to 11th from 18th last week in the pick-all pool with a 92-72 (56.1%) record and ten games behind the leader. However, I dropped to 37th from 23rd place in the Pick 5 with a 32-23 (58.2%) record and now 4 games out of the money. It’s getting critical now as there’s little time to make up a large deficit. There are four early games this week, with three on Thanksgiving and our Fins playing on Friday.
PACKERS +7.5 @ Lions. Conflicting trends here as the Packers are an incredible 10-0 ATS since 2021, when they are not more than a 2-point favorite after scoring 20+ points. However, Jared Goff is 2-0 ATS on Thanksgiving, and the Lions as T’Giving favorites are 4-0. I’m taking the touchdown+ points here.
COWBOYS -10.5 vs. Commanders. Don’t follow me on this game because, as you know, I can’t pick Washington. This is really an unwise pick, as Dallas is a horrendous 1-11 ATS on Thanksgiving, and QB Dak Prescott is only 1-5.
JETS +9.5 vs. Fins. In my tale of the tape write-up, I pointed out the similarities between this week’s game vs. the Jets and last week’s game vs. the Raiders. Both have unheralded backup QBs, and both have weak offenses. The big difference is that the Jets are home. The Fins’ offense is in for a real test, as the Jets D can get after it. I’m expecting an ugly and close game. Fins fans, take a win any way you can get it. FINS 20 Jets 17.
PANTHERS +3.5 @ Titans. The Titans shouldn’t be giving 3 ½ point to anyone. Not even the Georgia Bulldogs. The Panthers at 1-9 have no offensive weapons. Rookie QB vs. rookie QB. Young vs. Levis. I’ll take the points.
GIANTS +3.5 vs. Pats. Wait, you’re GIVING me 3.5 points at home vs. the Pats? OK, I’ll bite.
COLTS -2.5 vs. Bucs. Another week, another anti-Baker Mayfield pick.
TEXANS +1.5 vs. Jags. Gee, the Texans still are not getting any respect. They have been the better team this year. The Jags seem to be missing a gear and are wildly inconsistent. I really like the Texans in an outright upset special here.
STEELERS -1.5 @ Bengals. Based on what I saw from back-up QB Jake Browning vs. the Ravens last week, the Steelers and their meager offense shouldn’t have much to worry about. Maybe the firing of their offensive coordinator can get them an extra field goal.
SAINTS +1.5 @ Falcons. This is a stay-away game for sure. Two lousy teams who are so up and down, they are impossible to gauge. The Saints’ QB position is uncertain as starter Derrick Carr is in concussion protocol and his status is unclear. As for the Falcons, I’ve probably yet to pick them correctly this year.
CARDS -1.5 vs. Rams. These odds seem peculiar. The Cards are home favorites? Maybe QB Kyler Murray will be a home spark.
BRONCOS -2.5 vs. Browns. The Browns’ #1 defense goes up against a struggling Broncos offense. Somehow, the Broncos have managed to win 4 games in a row to join the playoff wild card hunt. Coin flip game where the winner won’t win by more than 3 points. I hope the Sean Payton/Russell Wilson magic continues.
RAIDERS +9.5 vs. Chiefs. The Chiefs have not scored a point in the 2nd half in 3 straight games. Here’s hoping their halftime lead dwindles below 10 in the second half.
BILLS +3.5 @ Eagles. I’m counting on the Eagles letting down after a huge road win vs. the Chiefs. The Bills are in dire straits and need to win a lot more than the Eagles. I favor the team that needs to win.
RAVENS -3.5 @ Chargers. I think the Chargers are dead in the water. There is team bickering and comments about the head coach. The Ravens are hot, so I’ll stick with the hot team over a team that’s close to getting its coach fired.
BEARS +3.5 @ Vikings. A huge QB matchup on Monday night as Justin Fields goes up against Josh Dobbs. The Vikings have momentum with Dobbs. I think they’ll win but hopefully only by a field goal.
PICK 5
