There’s nothing like starting out the week getting drubbed 63-21. Yes, I had the Chargers and begin the week 0-1. That makes the third week in a row I’ve lost the Thursday game. And yet last week, I could not believe what I was seeing on Sunday. I was looking at an 11-0 start, and then two things happened. 1) Jags coach Doug Pedersen inexplicably decides to go for 2 down 31-27 with a minute to play. Why Doug, why? Of course they miss and I lose the game by a hook. 2) Kadarius Toney. Need I say more? Loss number 2. That Chiefs loss was the end for me. I ended up losing the last 4 games of the week to go 9-6. A good week, yes, but what could have been…
The good week boosted me up to a season high 8h place at 117-91 (56.0%) for the season and 9 games behind the leader. Pick 5 capitalized on the hot start at 3-0 but lost the last 2 games for a 3-2 week moving up to 58th from 71st at 39-31 (55.7%) and no shot at the big money. This week, the NFL returns to Saturday games. Three of them, in fact, and I like all of them. Hopefully, I can do better than Thursday’s game.
BENGALS -3.5 vs Vikings. We have a battle of back-up quarterbacks here. Jake Browning vs. Nick Mullins. Browning and the 7-6 Bengals are on a roll and are back in the playoff hunt. Mullins hasn’t been seen or heard from in ages. The 7-6 Vikings currently hold a wild card spot in the NFC. Other than the NFC East runner up, there really isn’t any wild card strength in the NFC. I’m backing the hot quarterback over a rusty one.
COLTS -2.5 vs. Steelers. Neither one of these teams are good enough to be giving points. Both teams are 7-6 and are in the thick of the AFC wild card race. I’ve run out of patience with the Steelers whose offense was mediocre with starting QB Kenny Pickett. Now back-up Mitch Trubisky is starting and that is NOT a good thing. Colts QB Gardner Minshew does have his moments. Once again, I’m backing the better back-up QB in this matchup.
LIONS -4.5 vs. Broncos. Three Saturday games and I’ve got the home favorites in all three. I have a futures over ticket on the Broncos which looked to be dead after their 1-5 start. Somehow, they’ve managed to climb to 7-6 and amongst the AFC wild card contenders. Win or lose, the Broncos look ugly doing it. I don’t think QB Russell Wilson will ever be what he once was even with Sean Payton as his head coach. Rather than picking against Denver, I’m really picking for the 9-4 Lions. I’m basing my pick on the fact that they got completely embarrassed by the lowly Bears 28-13 last week and coach Dan Campbell was not a happy camper. Detroit has done well in bounce back games this year so that’s what I’m counting on.
BEARS +3.5 @ Browns. The more I look at this pick, the more I don’t like it. The 8-5 Browns are another AFC wild card contender and currently hold a spot and need this game. The Bears have nothing to play for, but they seem to be improving quietly. QB Joe Flacco is old. I’m not on the bandwagon yet.
FALCONS -3.5 @ Panthers. I rarely pick the Falcons although they came through last week for me. The Panthers are a mess. At 1-12 and rookie QB Bryce Young struggling, I just can’t side with that. The 6-7 Falcons are in a three-way tie for first in the lousy NFC South and desperately need a win here. This is a public pick but I’m taking Atlanta.
PATRIOTS +9.5 vs. Chiefs. I bet the Chiefs are still mad at the Kadarius Toney offsides call that cost them a win last week against the Bills. They can’t seem to get over it and seem distracted. The Patriots actually showed signs of life for one of the few games this year. 9.5 points is a lot at home, and their defense is capable of keeping this game within reason. The Chiefs are not a good heavy favorite team against the spread. I’m taking a flyer on Coach B and the boys.
TITANS -2.5 vs. Texans. When it was announced that Texans starting QB CJ Stroud was out, I changed my pick. I cannot back Davis Mills. If he burns me, so be it. The Titans did not look impressive for 57 minutes last week and then pulled off a miracle that 767 other teams couldn’t overcome. That being a two-touchdown deficit with three minutes left in the game. This is a field goal game either way with not a lot of points scored.
GIANTS +6.5 @ Saints. Alright Mr. DeVito, ya got me. Third-string QB Tommy DeVito has captured New York and the Giants actually have some momentum. At 5-8, their season is over, but momentum goes a long way and they’re up against an offensively challenged team in the Saints. New Orleans is part of that three-way tie in the NFC South at 6-7 and need the game. They probably get it, but the Saints shouldn’t be giving 6.5 to any team.
BUCS +3.5 @ Packers. Geez, all the wind went out of the sails for the Packers in their upset loss to the Giants last week. Their record fell to 6-7 and cannot afford another loss. Tampa is in the same boat as the last of the 6-7 teams tied for first in the NFC South. So, both teams need the game which tells me it will likely be played like a playoff game. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield has played better of late as has Packers QB Jordan Love. I don’t have a strong feeling either way so I’m taking the points in an even game.
RAMS -6.5 vs. Commanders. Followers know that I can’t pick Riverboat Ron. This has to be his last season as head coach of the Commanders, doesn’t it? They’re a disappointing 4-9 and are playing out the string. The 6-7 Rams still have hope of a wild card spot. I don’t think the Rams are good enough to lay 6.5 points but as I said, I can’t back Ron Rivera.
CARDINALS +13.5 vs. 49ers. SF could win this game 56-14. I’m simply playing the percentages and nothing more. A near two touchdown divisional game home underdog is what we have here. Historically the home dog covers 55% of the time so I will make this game my ‘makes no sense’ pick of the week.
BILLS -2.5 vs Cowboys. Thanks to the Chiefs’ Kadarius Toney, the Bills still have a pulse. Though they still have a steep climb to capture a payoff slot, they’ve been given life snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. On the other side, Dallas just beat the high-flying Eagles down to earth. They’ve scored at least 33 points the past 5 games and are now atop the NFC East at 10-3. I think this could be a letdown game for Dallas going on the road after a huge win over Philly. Buffalo is ready to make some noise in the AFC.
JAGS +3.5 vs. Ravens. I know I’ll regret this pick. In a battle of AFC division leaders, the 8-5 Jags host the 10-3 Ravens. If the line were anything less, I’d take the Ravens. The Jags certainly have not been impressive from my perspective, but I can’t pass up the 3.5 home dog. It’s a simple as that.
SEAHAWKS +3.5 vs. Eagles. This is a perfect ‘makes no sense’ pick for me. The public will be all over the Eagles which is when I usually go the other way. However, there are two things I’m worried about. 1) Philly has looked ugly in their last two games. Can they lose three games in a row. 2) The Seattle QB situation is unclear. If back up QB Drew Lock starts, I don’t like my chances. Even if starter Geno Smith plays, I don’t think he will be at 100%, but like I said this is one of those ‘makes no sense’ picks. BTW, last week the ‘makes no sense’ picks went 2-0.
JETS +8.5 vs. Fins. As I wrote in my pregame analysis, this game boils down to injuries on the Dolphins’ side. Tyreek Hill is iffy with a bad ankle and if there’s any doubt, I really hope he sits this one out and rests up for the gauntlet finish of Cowboys, Ravens, and Bills. I think the Fins struggle again and win a defensive struggle. Fins 21-14.
PICK 5
BENGALS -3.5 vs. Vikings
COLTS -2.5 vs. Steelers
LIONS -4.5 vs. Broncos
BUCS +3.5 @ Packers
GIANTS +5.5 @ Saints
