Bounce back week turned out alright. Bounce backs went 3-2 and the makes no sense picks also went 3-2 for an overall week record of 10-6. I still managed another dud as I picked the Rams who lost by 23. The good week moved me up in the @andyslater pick ‘em challenge standings from 51st to 39th with a 67-55 (54.9%) record. And a back-to-back 4-1 week in the pick 5 challenge moves me up to 17th place with a 25-15 (62.5%) record but only 2 games out of a tie for 2nd (worth $5k). This week’s theme is ‘back-up QB.’ There could be as many as six back-ups starting this week. That’s a lot of uncertainty. As I look at the picks this week, I have an overwhelming amount of home teams having picked only one road team. That is Halloween scary.
SAINTS -7.5 vs. Bears. Back-up game QB #1. The Bears once again turn to QB Tyson Bagent. I’ve been picking against him each week, and although this is a ton of points to cover for a mediocre offense, I think the Saints’ defense can cause some turnovers and create short fields for my nemesis Derrick Carr.
PATS -3.5 vs. Commanders. Both QBs are on my no bet list but I have to pick one It appears to me Washington has given up the season by virtue of trading away former #1 pick Chase Young. I’d feel a lot better if this line was -2.5, but I can’t side with head coach Ron Rivera.
TEXANS -2.5 vs. Bucs. This is simply a pick against Bucs’ QB Baker Mayfield.
PACKERS -3.5 vs. Rams. Back-up QB game #2. Rams QB Matthew Stafford is supposedly out with an injured thumb although it is not a 100% surety. As a result, I’m taking the Packers; however, if Stafford is clear to play, I’ll take the Rams and the points.
BROWNS -7.5 vs. Cards. Back-up QB game #3. Browns QB DeShaun Watson has been cleared to play. The Cards traded away its starter of recent weeks, Josh Dobbs. That allows rookie QB Clayton Tune to get an opportunity. Or does it? There’s a chance that Kyler Murray may play. I’m counting on the Browns #1 ranked defense to rattle whoever is QB Arizona.
RAVENS -5.5 vs. Seahawks. The Ravens are hot, and I’ve not taken advantage. I might be too late, but I’ll give them a shot this week although I wouldn’t be surprised if the ‘Hawks keep it close.
FALCONS -5.5 vs. Vikings. Back-up QB game #4. This game pits two back-ups against each other. Vikings’ starter Kirk Cousins is out for the year and so rookie Jaren Hall will start this week. Atlanta has decided to bench starter Desmond Ridder in favor of journeyman Tyler Heinicke. Talk about a game of unknowns. The Falcons don’t deserve to be favored by that many points period, but I have to side against the rookie QB getting his first start.
COLTS -2.5 @ Panthers. This is one of my typical ‘opposite’ week picks. The Panthers finally got their first win last week, and they got me a win. Still, I think there’s a letdown rather than a continuation so I’m backing the Colts.
RAIDERS -1.5 vs. Giants. Back-up QB game #5. This is the dog game of the week. The Raiders are a hot mess having fired both GM and head coach this week. There couldn’t be any bigger distraction than that. The Giants get starting QB Daniel Jones back, but the Raiders are starting rookie back-up Aidan O’Connell. My thinking here is that the Raiders will play hard for interim head coach Antonio Pierce and win an emotional game. I’d definitely steer clear of this game.
EAGLES -3.5 vs. Cowboys. Yup, I got burned on the Cowboys’ break-out blowout vs. the Rams. They seem to put it all together once a month. Now that they’ve used up that game, I’m siding with Philly. I don’t like Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy and pick against whenever possible. The Eagles, like the Bills, seem to be underperforming every week. Winning yes, but not up to the usual high standard. I think the Eagles bring their A-game this week and gain a foothold on the NFC East.
BENGALS -1.5 vs. Bills. No back-ups here. Joe Burrow vs. Josh Allen. This is my best bet of the week. The Bengals are gaining momentum and playing better each week while the Bills still seem to be missing a gear. I look for the Bengals to keep moving forward.
JETS +3.5 vs. Chargers. The Jets are always the ‘makes no sense’ pick. They just seem to find a way to keep games close against quality opponents. They look ugly but somehow seem to get it done. I’ll side with them again.
FINS +2.5 vs. Chiefs in Germany. This is a tough call for me as I’ve changed my mind three times on this game. What flipped it for me was the Fins getting back key players from injury. Corner back Xavien Howard, safety Javon Holland, center Connor Williams, and left tackle Terron Armstead are all returning. To me that’s a three-point turnaround. Yes, the Chiefs kicking advantage bugs me. Yes, the Fins’ recent performance against top teams bugs me. Yes, the Chiefs’ bounce-back factor bugs me after a terrible loss to Denver last week. But at the end of the day, I think the Fins will hang around and prove they can beat a quality team for once. Jason Sanders wins it with a late field goal. Fins 24-23.
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