The next Miami Dolphins head coach is walking into a difficult if not a terrible situation, and I believe they will only be given one year to prove themselves.

Most new head coaches get at least two seasons, if not three seasons, to prove themselves and to make strides and turn an organization around. There are exceptions like David Culley in Houston, Steve Wilks with Arizona, Cam Cameron in Miami, Mike Mularkey with Jacksonville, in which coaches only got one season in their new role before they were fired.

I believe the next Miami Dolphins head coach will be under tremendous pressure and only have one season to make the playoffs, fix Tua Tagovialoa, and prove themselves worthy of a second season.

This Miami Dolphins open head coaching position is unique in many ways. They are coming off back-to-back winning seasons; they have a defense many widely consider to be above average if not great, and the entire football world loves the coach they just fired.

Whoever the next Miami Dolphins head coach is, he has big shoes to fill and possibly unrealistic expectations meet.

Let’s break them down one by one.

The Defense: Miami has had back-to-back seasons where the defense has been one of the very best in the NFL, and that is primarily credited to Brian Flores. If the next Miami head coach comes in and that defense regresses and doesn’t play at the level it has the previous two seasons, that is a knock on whoever the Dolphins head coach is in 2022.

Tua: It is clear from the numerous national and local reports that Brian Flores was not on “Team Tua,” and he wanted to move on from Tua as his quarterback. He didn’t like Tua’s work ethic; he didn’t like Tua playing so much golf, he didn’t think he could win a championship with Tua. If the next head coach comes in and Tua doesn’t improve, if Miami doesn’t make the playoffs, and if Tua looks like the same Tua we have seen in his first two seasons, it will validate that Brian Flores was right. And the new Dolphins head coach couldn’t “fix” the biggest issue facing the Dolphins which is the quarterback position and Tua.

Chris Grier: The current Dolphins general manager has been in Miami in some capacity for over 20 years. He just won a power struggle with head coach Brian Flores. Flores died, Grier survived. But he survived for now. Another season in which Miami misses the playoffs. Another season in which Tua (the most important selection Grier has ever made) underperforms. Another season of failure and Grier will be shown the door. Grier was given the keys to the kingdom, and if the results aren’t there, then he will not survive another lackluster season. Putting the next head coach who was just hired, who Grier hired, in an awkward and uncomfortable position within the organization.

So, if the new head coach doesn’t get results in year one, all signs are pointing to his general manager and starting quarterback won’t be around for 2023. The owner who has a track record of firing coaches left and right will look to blow the entire front office up and bring in a new general manager, which in reality means a new head coach the new general manager will want to put into place.

Whoever is Miami’s next head coach has to make the playoffs in 2022 or most likely they will be fired. They won’t have the comfort and time that other head coaches who get hired this offseason get. That is why the Dolphins opening at head coach isn’t an attractive one.

That is why the candidates who may get multiple head coaching offers this cycle, such as Dan Quinn and Brian Daboll, may avoid Miami at all costs. Sure they may take an interview with Miami, but accepting the job as head coach is a totally different story. Knowing they may be going to a team that has less talent but has more stability with the front office and that will give them time to build what they want to build. They also won’t have a quarterback they may not want forced down their throat as well.

I believe the Dolphins’ next head coach will be someone who may not have any other head coaching offers or the Dolphins going outside the box to take a flyer on someone that nobody else is seriously considering.

That is why keep an eye on these three names.

Thomas Brown: Current Rams running backs coach.

Jim Caldwell: Been out of the league since 2017.

Vance Joseph: Was in Miami with Gase for one season and knows Grier.

These are three names that most likely won’t have many options to be a head coach with other teams. And if you have to fire them after one year, you won’t see the fanbase or the national media up in arms over letting them go.

And because all three will most likely have few options, Grier can call the shots completely and force Tua on them and not have much push-back.

The Dolphins head coaching situation isn’t an attractive one for many reasons. It goes beyond cap space and draft picks. The organizational structure is broken, and the quarterback situation isn’t good.

Because of that and because of the blazing hot seat Chris Grier currently sits on, expect Miami’s next head coaching hire to be one that doesn’t excite Dolphins fans and one that will have many around the NFL world scratching their head.

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